Overchoice and How to Avoid it

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Dec 18, 2023

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来源：The Prism

Overchoice and How to Avoid it

"A man who procrastinates in his choosing will inevitably have his choice made for him by circumstance."“一个在选择上犹豫不决的人，他的选择将不可避免地被环境所决定。”

—Hunter S. Thompson ——亨特·S·汤普森

In our age of abundance we’re constantly faced with choices, which we must navigate with a brain that evolved for a much simpler life. As such, we’re overwhelmed by options, lost in the labyrinth of possibility, trapped by unfettered freedom.在我们这个物质丰富的时代，我们不断面临选择，我们必须用为更简单的生活而进化的大脑来驾驭这些选择。因此，我们被各种选择淹没，迷失在可能性的迷宫中，被不受约束的自由所困。

According to various polls, people estimate that they spend between 2.5 and 3 hours per day making trivial decisions, such as what to eat for dinner. That’s around 1000 hours, or 40 days, of dithering per year, and it doesn’t include the weightier decisions like where to live or who to marry.根据各种民意调查，人们估计他们每天花 2.5 到 3 个小时来做一些琐碎的决定，比如晚餐吃什么。每年大约有 1000 小时，即 40 天，犹豫不决，这还不包括住在哪里或与谁结婚等更重要的决定。

Most of our everyday choices are between similar things; what movie to watch, what brand of toothpaste to buy. Fredkin’s paradox states that the more similar two choices seem, the less the decision should matter, yet the harder it is to choose between them. As a result, we often spend the most time on the decisions that matter least.我们日常的大多数选择都是在相似的事物之间进行的。看什么电影，买什么牌子的牙膏。弗雷德金悖论指出，两个选择看起来越相似，决定的重要性就越小，但在它们之间做出选择就越困难。结果，我们常常把最多的时间花在最不重要的决定上。

This is illustrated by Buridan’s ass, a mythical donkey that finds itself precisely equidistant from two identical bales of hay. The ass tries to make a firm decision as to whether to eat from the left bale or the right, but since there’s no rational reason to prefer either, the donkey wavers until it starves to death.布里丹的驴就说明了这一点，这是一种神话中的驴子，它发现自己与两堆相同的干草等距。驴试图做出坚定的决定，是吃左边的草捆还是右边的草捆，但由于没有合理的理由选择哪一个，驴子就犹豫不决，直到饿死。

Buridan’s ass illustrates that there’s a cost to weighing options, which can exceed the cost of any of the options. Thus, the choices we make don’t need to be the best; they just have to be worth more than the time spent making them. If we spend less time making decisions, we can spend more time making whatever decision we made work.布里丹的屁股表明，权衡选择是有成本的，该成本可能超过任何选择的成本。因此，我们所做的选择不一定是最好的，而是最好的。它们的价值必须高于制作它们所花费的时间。如果我们花更少的时间做决定，我们就可以花更多的时间来做我们曾经做过的决定。

The best way to manage the myriad decisions of the modern age is by employing “philosophical razors,” so-called because they shave away options, simplifying choices.管理现代无数决策的最佳方法是使用“哲学剃刀”，之所以如此称呼，是因为它们消除了选择，简化了选择。

Naturally, there’s an overwhelming range of razors to choose from. I’ve tried scores of them, and have found that most aren’t workable, either because they lead to poor decisions or they’re too complicated for everyday decisions.当然，有各种各样的剃须刀可供选择。我尝试过很多方法，发现大多数方法都不可行，要么是因为它们会导致糟糕的决策，要么是因为它们对于日常决策来说太复杂了。

A few, though, have proven indispensable. Here are the five I use most.然而，有一些已被证明是不可或缺的。这是我最常用的五个。

Uphill Decisions: 艰难的决定：

“If you can't decide between two equally difficult choices, take the path that's more difficult/painful in the short term.”“如果你无法在两个同样困难的选择之间做出决定，那就选择短期内更困难/痛苦的道路。”

Humans are guilty of “temporal discounting,” the tendency to overvalue short term pain/reward and undervalue long term pain/reward. So if a decision is painful in the short term, you’re likely overestimating that pain, and should choose it over the longer term pain that only seems small because it’s far away.人类犯有“暂时贴现”的罪，即高估短期痛苦/回报而低估长期痛苦/回报的倾向。因此，如果一个决定在短期内是痛苦的，那么你可能高估了这种痛苦，并且应该选择它而不是长期的痛苦，因为它很遥远，所以看起来很小。

The Two-Minute Rule: 两分钟规则：

“If a task will take less than two minutes, it should be done at the moment it’s defined.”“如果一项任务需要不到两分钟，就应该在定义时完成。”

Adding a 2-minute task to your mental to-do list, keeping it in memory, and managing the anxiety of not having done it will take more effort than just doing it now.将一个 2 分钟的任务添加到你的心理待办事项列表中，将其牢记在心，并管理因未完成该任务而产生的焦虑，将比现在就做需要付出更多的努力。

Unresolved decisions nag at you, costing you time, attention, and peace of mind. It’s worth making trivial decisions immediately to lift their burden and make space for more important matters.未决的决定会困扰你，浪费你的时间、注意力和内心的平静。值得立即做出一些琐碎的决定，以减轻他们的负担，为更重要的事情腾出空间。

Solomon's Paradox: 所罗门悖论：

“If you can’t decide, pretend you’re deciding for a friend.”“如果你无法决定，就假装你是在为朋友做决定。”

Solomon’s paradox is a robust finding that we're better at solving other people's problems than our own, because detachment yields objectivity. But research has found that viewing oneself in the 3rd person yields the same detachment and objectivity. So if you’re stuck in a dilemma, consider what advice you’d give if the dilemma was your best friend’s.所罗门悖论是一个强有力的发现，即我们比自己更擅长解决别人的问题，因为超然会产生客观性。但研究发现，以第三人称来看待自己会产生同样的超然和客观性。因此，如果你陷入困境，请考虑如果你最好的朋友面临困境，你会给出什么建议。

The Hesitation Heuristic:犹豫启发法：

“If you can’t decide, the answer is no.”“如果你无法决定，答案是否定的。”

We live in an age of abundance, where new options are constantly becoming available. But every option has an opportunity cost, so if you keep taking opportunities you’re not eager for, you’ll miss out on ones to which you’d unequivocally answer “Yes!”我们生活在一个物质丰富的时代，新的选择不断涌现。但每个选择都有机会成本，所以如果你继续抓住你并不渴望的机会，你就会错过那些你会明确回答“是的！”的机会。

This heuristic is best used as a last resort when other decision-making heuristics have failed. It’s also conditional on you having many options available. If for whatever reason you don’t get many options, you should use the opposite heuristic: “If you can’t decide, the answer is yes.”当其他决策启发法失败时，最好将这种启发法用作最后的手段。这也取决于你有很多可用的选择。如果出于某种原因你没有太多选择，你应该使用相反的启发法：“如果你无法决定，答案是肯定的。”

Regret Minimization: 遗憾最小化：

“The opinion you should care about most is your future self’s.”“你最应该关心的意见是未来的自己。”

One of the most powerful razors is to view a decision from the perspective of your future self. It combines the effects of Solomon’s Paradox and Uphill Decisions, offering the former’s detachment and the latter’s view of the long-term.最有力的剃须刀之一就是从未来的自己的角度来看待决定。它结合了所罗门悖论和艰难决策的影响，提供了前者的超然态度和后者的长期观点。

One way to achieve this is with the 10:10:10 strategy: consider how a decision will affect you in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. This is particularly good for fighting addictions. For instance, if you’re on a diet but craving a chocolate muffin, consider how you’ll feel 10 minutes after consuming it, and you’ll realize you’ll no longer taste the chocolatiness, and will only feel guilt. Furthermore, in 10 months you’ll have no memory of ever having eaten it. By stepping outside the present moment, you become less vulnerable to the desire for immediate gratification.实现这一目标的一种方法是使用 10:10:10 策略：考虑一个决定将如何在 10 分钟、10 个月和 10 年后影响您。这对于对抗毒瘾特别有效。例如，如果你正在节食，但很想吃巧克力松饼，想想吃完它 10 分钟后你的感受，你会发现你不再尝到巧克力的味道，只会感到内疚。此外，10个月后你将不记得曾经吃过它。通过走出当下，你就不会那么容易受到立即满足的欲望的影响。

More momentous decisions benefit from even bigger leaps through time. When trying to decide whether to start a business called Amazon, Jeff Bezos imagined himself at 80 years, looking back at his life. He realized that what he would’ve regretted most was not failing but never trying.更重大的决定受益于更大的时间飞跃。当杰夫·贝佐斯试图决定是否创办一家名为亚马逊的企业时，他想象自己已经 80 岁了，回顾自己的一生。他意识到，他最后悔的不是失败，而是从未尝试。

Think about it: somewhere in the future, your older self is watching you through memories.想一想：在未来的某个地方，年长的自己正在通过记忆注视着你。

Whether it's with regret or nostalgia depends on what you do now.是遗憾还是留恋，取决于你现在做什么。