Harry Browne’s 17 Golden Rules of Financial Safety

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Sep 8, 2023

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来源：The Tao Of Wealth

Harry Browne’s 17 Golden Rules of Financial Safety

When you read in the news that a person whom you know as rich and wealthy is in financial trouble or has declared bankruptcy, it is easy to feel a sense of futility about managing your own money. You start to think that if such a rich person, who has access to the best financial advice, can come to this state, what chance do I have?

当你在新闻中读到一个你认识的富有的人陷入财务困境或宣布破产时，你很容易感到管理自己的钱是徒劳的。你开始想，如果这样一个有钱人，能得到最好的财务建议，都能达到这种境界，我还有什么机会呢？

If you read deeper into his or her story you will find that he has come to this state because he violated some basic rule of life. The Golden Rules of Financial Safety of Harry Browne are the basic rules for financial success. They are simple and obvious and if you abide by them, there is less chance than one in a million that you could lose all that you have….

如果你深入了解他或她的故事，你会发现他之所以走到这一步，是因为他违反了一些基本的生活规则。哈里·布朗的财务安全黄金法则是财务成功的基本规则。它们简单明了，如果您遵守它们，那么您失去所拥有的一切的可能性将小于百万分之一……

Let us learn what they are…

让我们了解它们是什么......

Your career 你的职业

Rule 1: Your career provides your wealth规则一：你的职业提供你的财富

Build your wealth upon your career.You most likely will make far more money from your business or profession than from your investments. Only very rarely does someone make a large fortune from investments.

在你的职业生涯中积累你的财富。你从你的生意或职业中赚到的钱很可能比从你的投资中赚到的钱多得多。只有极少数人才能通过投资赚大钱。

Your investments can make your future more secure and your retirement more prosperous. But they can’t take you from rags to riches. So don’t take risks with complicated schemes in the hope of multiplying your capital quickly. Your investment plan should be aimed, first and foremost, at preserving what you have—preserving it from investment loss, government intervention, or mismanagement.

您的投资可以让您的未来更加安全，让您的退休生活更加繁荣。但他们无法让你从赤贫变成富有。因此，不要为了快速增加资本而冒险实施复杂的计划。您的投资计划的首要目标应该是保护您所拥有的资产，使其免受投资损失、政府干预或管理不善的影响。

Most part-time investors who try to beat the markets lose part or all the savings they’ve worked so hard to accumulate.

大多数试图战胜市场的兼职投资者都会损失部分或全部辛苦积累的积蓄。

Can you make big profits by relying on an expert who does have the proper qualifications? How do you find a true expert? That task is no easier than picking the right investments. If you don’t understand investing as well as the pros, you won’t know how to check those who seek to advise you. And you can’t rely on an advisor’s track record, even when it’s presented honestly. Track records tell you only how advisors did in the past – not how they will do next year.

您可以依靠具有适当资格的专家来赚取巨额利润吗？如何找到真正的专家？这项任务并不比选择正确的投资容易。如果你不像专业人士那样了解投资，你将不知道如何检查那些寻求为你提供建议的人。而且你不能依赖顾问的记录，即使它是诚实地呈现的。过往记录仅告诉您顾问过去的表现，而不是他们明年的表现。

You’re violating Rule 1 if you think your investments can be the sole source of your retirement wealth – or if you steal time from your work to manage your investments – or if you think about abandoning your job to become a full-time investor.如果您认为您的投资可以成为您退休财富的唯一来源，或者如果您从工作中抽出时间来管理您的投资，或者如果您考虑放弃工作成为一名全职投资者，那么您就违反了规则1 。

Your Wealth May Be Non-Replaceable您的财富可能是不可替代的

Rule 2: Don’t assume you can replace your wealth.规则2：不要以为你可以取代你的财富。

The fact that you earned what you have doesn’t mean that you could earn it again if you lost it. Markets and opportunities change, technology changes, laws change. Conditions today may be considerably different from what they were when you built the estate you have now. And as time passes, increasing regulation makes it harder and harder to amass a fortune.

你所拥有的东西是你赚来的，并不意味着你失去了它也能重新获得。市场和机会发生变化，技术发生变化，法律发生变化。今天的条件可能与您建造现在拥有的庄园时的条件有很大不同。随着时间的推移，监管的加强使得积累财富变得越来越困难。

So treat what you have as though you could never earn it again. Don’t take chances with your wealth on the assumption that you could always get it back.

因此，对待你所拥有的，就像你永远无法再获得它一样。不要拿你的财富冒险，以为你总能收回它。

You earned your wealth because your talent and effort harmonized with the circumstances in which you found yourself. But the world won’t stand still for you or repeat itself when you need it to.

你赢得了财富，因为你的才能和努力与你所处的环境相协调。但世界不会为你停滞不前，也不会在你需要的时候重演。

So assume that what you have now is irreplaceable, that you could never earn it again – even if you suspect you could.

因此，假设你现在拥有的东西是不可替代的，你永远无法再赚到它——即使你怀疑你可以。

Say “No!” to any proposition that asks you to risk losing it.

说不！”任何要求你冒失去它的风险的主张。

Investing vs. Speculating投资与投机

Rule 3: Recognize the difference between investing and speculating.规则 3：认识投资和投机之间的区别。

When you invest, you accept the return the markets are paying investors in general. When you speculate, you attempt to beat that return — to do better than other investors are doing — through astute timing, forecasting, or stock selection, and with the implied belief that you’re smarter than most other investors.

当您投资时，您接受市场一般向投资者支付的回报。当你进行投机时，你试图通过精明的时机、预测或股票选择来超越回报——比其他投资者做得更好——并隐含着你比大多数其他投资者更聪明的信念。

You’re speculating when:

你在猜测什么时候：

You select individual stocks, mutual funds, or stock market sectors you believe will do better than the market as a whole. 您选择您认为会比整个市场表现更好的个股、共同基金或股市板块。

You move your capital in and out of markets according to how well you think they’ll perform in the near future. 您可以根据您认为市场在不久的将来的表现如何将资金移入和移出市场。

You base your investments on current prospects for the nation’s economy. 您的投资基于国家经济的当前前景。

You use fundamental analysis, technical analysis, cyclical analysis, or any other form of analysis or system to tell you when to buy and sell. 您使用基本面分析、技术分析、周期性分析或任何其他形式的分析或系统来告诉您何时买入和卖出。

There’s nothing wrong with speculating — provided you do it with money you can afford to lose. But the money that’s precious to you shouldn’t be risked on a bet that you can outperform other investors.

投机并没有什么错——只要你用可以承受损失的钱来投机。但你不应该拿对你来说很宝贵的钱去冒险，赌你能跑赢其他投资者。

Forecasting the Future 预测未来

Rule 4: No one can predict the future.规则4：没有人能够预测未来。

Beware of fortune tellers.

小心算命先生。

Events in the investment markets result from the decisions of millions of different people. Investor advisors have no more ability to predict the future actions of human beings than psychics and fortune-tellers do. And so events never unfold as we were so sure they would.

投资市场中的事件是由数百万不同的人的决定造成的。投资者顾问并不比通灵者和算命师更有能力预测人类未来的行为。因此，事件永远不会像我们确信的那样发生。

Yes, there have been forecasts that came true. But the only reason we notice them is because it’s so exceptional for even one to come true. We forget about all the failed predictions because they’re so commonplace.

是的，有些预测已经成为现实。但我们注意到它们的唯一原因是，即使是其中一个实现也是如此特殊。我们忘记了所有失败的预测，因为它们太常见了。

No one can reliably tell you what stocks will do next year, whether we’ll have more inflation, or how the economy will perform.

没有人能够可靠地告诉你明年股市会怎样，通货膨胀是否会加剧，或者经济将如何表现。

As with the rest of your life, safety doesn’t come from trying to peer into the future to eliminate uncertainty. Safety comes from devising realistic ways to deal with uncertainty.

与你的余生一样，安全并不来自于试图展望未来以消除不确定性。安全来自于设计现实的方法来应对不确定性。

We live in an uncertain world – and that no one can eliminate the uncertainty for you.

我们生活在一个不确定的世界——没有人能为您消除不确定性。

Look for ways to assure that the uncertain future won’t hurt you – no matter what it turns out to be.

寻找方法来确保不确定的未来不会伤害你——无论结果如何。

Investment Advice 投资建议

Rule 5: No one can move you in and out of investments consistently with precise and profitable timing.规则 5：没有人能够以精确且有利可图的时机让您持续进出投资。

Don’t expect anyone to make you rich. You’ll hear about many Wall Street wizards, but the investment advisor with the perfect record up to now most likely will lose his touch the moment you start acting on his advice.

不要指望任何人能让你变得富有。你会听说过许多华尔街奇才，但迄今为止拥有完美记录的投资顾问很可能会在你开始按照他的建议行事时失去他的影响力。

Investment advisors can be very valuable. A good advisor can help you understand how to do the things you know you need to do. He can help call your attention to risks you may have overlooked. And he can make you aware of new alternatives.

投资顾问可能非常有价值。一个好的顾问可以帮助您了解如何做您知道需要做的事情。他可以帮助您注意您可能忽视的风险。他可以让你了解新的选择。

The Helper (accountant, etc) is worth listening to. He or she can acquaint you with investment alternatives you weren’t aware of, and that might be a good fit for you. He can teach you the mechanics and procedures for getting things done in the investment world. He can raise the questions you need to answer in order to devise a portfolio that suits your needs. He can help you reduce the tax bill on your investment profits.

助手（会计师等）的说法值得一听。他或她可以让您熟悉您不知道的投资选择，这可能很适合您。他可以教你在投资领域完成工作的机制和程序。他可以提出您需要回答的问题，以便设计出适合您需求的投资组合。他可以帮助您减少投资利润的税单。

You don’t act on the advice of someone you never heard of. And you hear of him only after – and because – he has made several profitable recommendations in a row.

你不会按照你从未听说过的人的建议行事。你只是在——并且因为——他连续提出了几项有利可图的建议之后才听说他。

The investment expert with the perfect record up to now will lose his touch as soon as you start acting on his advice.

一旦你开始按照他的建议行事，迄今为止拥有完美记录的投资专家就会失去他的触觉。

But no one can guarantee to have you always in the right place at the right time. And worse, attempts to do so can sometimes be fatal to your portfolio.

但没有人能保证您总是在正确的时间出现在正确的地点。更糟糕的是，尝试这样做有时可能会对您的投资组合造成致命的影响。

Trading Systems 交易系统

Rule 6: No trading system will work as well in the future as it did in the past.规则 6：未来任何交易系统都不会像过去那样有效。

You’ll come across many trading systems or indicators that seem always to have signaled correctly where your money should have been, but somehow the systems never come through when your money is on the line.

您会遇到许多交易系统或指标，它们似乎总是能正确地指示您的资金应该在哪里，但不知何故，当您的资金处于危险之中时，这些系统永远不会出现。

Trading systems generally arise from one of two sources.

交易系统通常来自两个来源之一。

The first source is a commonsense observation about human behavior – which someone then tries to transform into a quantifiable, mechanical system.

第一个来源是对人类行为的常识性观察——然后有人试图将其转化为可量化的机械系统。

For example, Contrary Opinion is a theory that says, among other things, that an investment is likely to be near its peak when everyone seems to know how good its prospects are.

例如，相反意见是一种理论，除其他外，该理论认为，当每个人似乎都知道某项投资的前景有多好时，该投资可能会接近其顶峰。

The idea makes some sense. If everyone already knows something is a good investment, most people who are likely to buy it probably already have done so – leaving very few investors to buy it and push its price still higher.

这个想法有一定道理。如果每个人都知道某样东西是一项不错的投资，那么大多数可能购买它的人可能已经这样做了——只剩下很少的投资者购买它并推高其价格。

In such a case, you should be skeptical about its prospects as a speculation.

在这种情况下，您应该对其作为投机的前景持怀疑态度。

But that doesn’t mean we know precisely when or at what price the investment will peak. You know only that there doesn’t seem to be room for the price to go much higher.

但这并不意味着我们确切地知道投资何时或以什么价格达到顶峰。你只知道价格似乎没有上涨的空间。

But people who devise trading systems aren’t satisfied with anything so indefinite. They devise indicators to measure the precise degree of bullishness and bearishness surrounding a specific investment – and then construct formulas that provide specific signals for buying and selling.

但设计交易系统的人们并不满足于如此不确定的事情。他们设计指标来衡量特定投资的看涨和看跌的精确程度，然后构建提供特定买卖信号的公式。

This is similar to taking an obvious truth – such as that attendance at sporting events is generally smaller on rainy days than on sunny days – and constructing a formula that supposedly translates the number of inches of rainfall into an exact forecast of the attendance.

这类似于接受一个明显的事实——例如，雨天参加体育赛事的人数通常比晴天少——并构建一个公式，据称可以将降雨量英寸数转化为对观看人数的准确预测。

The second source is probably finding something that has worked in the past and assuming it will work in the future. Trading systems are based on the unstated assumption that the world doesn’t change. But the world is in constant change – as desires change, demand changes, and supplies change.

第二个来源可能是找到过去有效的方法并假设它将来也有效。交易系统基于一个未明确的假设：世界不会改变。但世界在不断变化——欲望在变化、需求在变化、供给在变化。

Operate on a Cash Basis以现金收付制经营

Rule 7: Don’t use leverage.规则 7：不要使用杠杆。

When someone goes completely broke, it’s almost always because he used borrowed money. In many cases, the individual was already quite rich, but he wanted to pyramid his fortune with borrowed money.

当一个人彻底破产时，几乎总是因为他借了钱。在许多情况下，个人已经相当富有，但他想用借来的钱来扩大自己的财富。

Using margin accounts or mortgages (for other than your home) puts you at risk to lose more than your original investment. If you handle all your investments on a cash basis, it’s virtually impossible to lose everything—no matter what might happen in the world—especially if you follow the other rules given here.

使用保证金账户或抵押贷款（除了您的房屋）会让您面临损失超过原始投资的风险。如果您以现金方式处理所有投资，那么无论世界上发生什么，几乎不可能失去一切，尤其是如果您遵循此处给出的其他规则。

Make Your Own Decisions 自己做决定

Rule 8: Don’t let anyone make your decisions.规则 8：不要让任何人为你做决定。

Many people lost their fortunes because they gave someone (a financial advisor or attorney) the authority to make their decisions and handle their money. The advisor may have taken too many chances, been dishonest, or simply incompetent. But, most of all, no advisor can be expected to treat your money with the same respect you do.

许多人失去了财富，因为他们赋予某人（财务顾问或律师）做出决定和处理金钱的权力。顾问可能冒险太多、不诚实或根本无能。但最重要的是，没有任何顾问会像您一样尊重您的资金。

You don’t need a money manager. Investing is complicated and difficult to understand only if you’re trying to beat the market. You can preserve what you have with only a minimum understanding of investing. You can set up a worry-proof portfolio for yourself in one day — and then you need only one day a year to monitor it. Allowing the smartest person in the world to make your decisions for you isn’t nearly as safe as setting up a safe portfolio for yourself.

你不需要资金经理。只有当你试图击败市场时，投资才会变得复杂且难以理解。只需对投资有最低限度的了解，您就可以保留您所拥有的东西。您可以在一天之内为自己建立一个无忧的投资组合，然后您一年只需要一天的时间来监控它。让世界上最聪明的人为你做决定远不如为自己建立一个安全的投资组合那么安全。

Above all, never give anyone signature authority over money that’s precious to you. If you should put money into an account for someone else to manage, it must be money you can afford to lose.

最重要的是，永远不要向任何人授予对你来说宝贵的金钱的签字权。如果你应该把钱存入一个账户让别人管理，那么这笔钱必须是你可以承受损失的。

Understand What You Do 了解你所做的事情

Rule 9: Don’t ever do anything you don’t understand.规则九：永远不要做任何你不明白的事情。

Don’t undertake any investment, speculation, or investment program that you don’t understand. If you do, you may later discover risks you weren’t aware of. Or your losses might turn out to be greater than the amount you invested.

不要进行任何你不了解的投资、投机或投资项目。如果这样做，您以后可能会发现您没有意识到的风险。或者您的损失可能会大于您的投资金额。

It’s better to leave your money in Treasury bills than to take chances with investments you don’t fully comprehend. It doesn’t matter that your brother-in-law, your best friend, or your favorite investment advisor understands some money-making scheme. It isn’t his money at risk. If you don’t understand it, don’t do it.

最好把钱留在国库券上，而不是冒险进行你不完全理解的投资。你的姐夫、你最好的朋友或你最喜欢的投资顾问是否了解一些赚钱计划并不重要。这不是他的钱面临风险。如果你不明白，就不要这样做。

Diversification 多样化

Rule 10: Don’t depend on any one investment, institution, or person for your safety.规则 10：不要依赖任何一项投资、机构或个人来保障您的安全。

Every investment has its time in the sun — and its moment of shame. Precious metals ruled the roost in the 1970s while stocks and bonds were in disgrace. But then gold and silver became the losers of the 1980s and 1990s, while stocks and bonds multiplied their value. No one investment is good for all times. Even Treasury bills can lose real value during times of inflation.

每项投资都有阳光灿烂的时候，也有耻辱的时刻。贵金属在 20 世纪 70 年代称霸，而股票和债券则黯然失色。但随后黄金和白银成为 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代的输家，而股票和债券的价值则成倍增长。没有一项投资是永远有利的。在通货膨胀时期，即使是国库券也会失去实际价值。

And you can’t rely on any single institution to protect your wealth for you. Old-line banks have failed and pension funds have folded. The company you think will keep your wealth safe might not be there when you’re ready to withdraw your life savings.

而且您不能依赖任何单一机构来保护您的财富。老牌银行倒闭，养老基金倒闭。当您准备提取毕生积蓄时，您认为能够保护您财富安全的公司可能并不存在。

We live in an uncertain world, and surprises are the norm. You shouldn’t risk the chance that a single surprise will wipe out a large part of your holdings.

我们生活在一个充满不确定性的世界，惊喜是常态。你不应该冒一个意外就会让你的大部分资产化为乌有的风险。

Diversify across investments and institutions – and keep things simple enough to manage yourself – you can relax, knowing that no one event can do you in.

跨投资和机构进行多元化——并让事情足够简单，以便您自己管理——您可以放松，因为知道没有任何一件事可以让您陷入困境。

Balanced Portfolio 平衡的投资组合

Rule 11: Create a bulletproof portfolio for protection.规则 11：创建防弹投资组合以提供保护。

For the money you need to take care of you for the rest of your life, set up a simple, balanced, diversified portfolio. I call this a “Permanent Portfolio” because once you set it up, you never need to rearrange the investment mix— even if your outlook for the future changes.

为了照顾你余生所需的钱，建立一个简单、平衡、多元化的投资组合。我将其称为“永久投资组合”，因为一旦你建立了它，你就永远不需要重新安排投资组合——即使你对未来的前景发生了变化。

The portfolio should assure that your wealth will survive any event — including an event that would be devastating to any individual element within the portfolio. In other words, this portfolio should protect you no matter what the future brings.

投资组合应确保您的财富能够在任何事件中幸存下来——包括对投资组合中任何单个元素造成毁灭性影响的事件。换句话说，无论未来发生什么，这个投资组合都应该保护您。

It isn’t difficult or complicated to have such a portfolio this safe. You can achieve a great deal of diversification with a surprisingly simple portfolio.

拥有如此安全的投资组合并不困难或复杂。您可以通过极其简单的投资组合实现极大的多元化。

The portfolio should assure that your wealth will survive any event – including events that would be devastating to any one investment.Three absolute requirements for such a portfolio are:

投资组合应确保您的财富能够在任何事件中幸存下来，包括对任何一项投资都具有毁灭性的事件。此类投资组合的三个绝对要求是：

1. Safety:It should protect you against every possible economic future. You should profit during times of normal prosperity, but you also should be safe (and perhaps even profit) during bad times – inflation, recession, or even depression.

安全：它应该保护您免受各种可能的经济未来的影响。你应该在正常繁荣时期获利，但在困难时期（通货膨胀、衰退甚至萧条）你也应该安全（甚至可能获利）。

2. Stability:Whatever economic climate arrives, the portfolio’s performance should be so steady that you won’t wonder whether the portfolio needs to be changed. Even in the worst possible circumstances, the portfolio’s value should drop no more than slightly – so that you won’t panic and abandon it. This stability also permits you to turn your attention away from your investments, confident that your portfolio will protect you in any circumstance.

2.稳定性：无论经济环境如何，投资组合的表现都应该稳定，以至于你不会怀疑投资组合是否需要改变。即使在最糟糕的情况下，投资组合的价值跌幅也不会超过小幅，这样您就不会惊慌并放弃它。这种稳定性还允许您将注意力从投资上移开，相信您的投资组合在任何情况下都能保护您。

3. Simplicity:The portfolio should be so easy to maintain, and require so little of your time, that you’ll never be tempted to look for something that seems simpler, but is less safe.

3. 简单性：投资组合应该很容易维护，并且只需要很少的时间，这样你就永远不会试图寻找看起来更简单但不太安全的东西。

You leave it alone – to hold the same investments, in the same proportions, permanently. You don’t change the proportions as you, your friends, or investment gurus change their minds about the future.

你不用管它——以相同的比例永久持有相同的投资。当你、你的朋友或投资专家改变对未来的看法时，你不会改变比例。

Your portfolio needs to respond well only to those broad movements. And they fit into four general categories:

您的投资组合只需要对这些广泛的波动做出良好的反应。它们分为四大类：

1. Prosperity:A period during which living standards are rising, the economy is growing, business is thriving, interest rates usually are falling, and unemployment is declining.

1.繁荣时期：生活水平提高、经济增长、商业繁荣、利率通常下降、失业率下降的时期。

2. Inflation:A period when consumer prices generally are rising. They might be rising moderately (an inflation rate of 6% or so), rapidly (10% to 20% or so, as in the late 1970s), or at a runaway rate (25% or more).

2. 通货膨胀：消费者价格普遍上涨的时期。它们可能会温和上涨（通货膨胀率约为 6% 左右），也可能会快速上涨（10% 至 20% 左右，如 20 世纪 70 年代末），也可能会急剧上涨（25% 或更高）。

3. Tight money or recession:A period during which the growth of the supply of money in circulation slows down. This leaves people with less cash than they expected to have, and usually leads to a recession – a period of poor economic conditions.

3. 货币紧缩或衰退：流通中货币供应量增长放缓的时期。这使得人们的现金少于预期，通常会导致经济衰退——一段经济状况不佳的时期。

4. Deflation:The opposite of inflation. Consumer prices decline and the purchasing power value of money grows. In the past, deflation has sometimes triggered a depression – a prolonged period of very bad economic conditions, as in the 1930s.

4.通货紧缩：与通货膨胀相反。消费者价格下降，货币购买力价值上升。过去，通货紧缩有时会引发萧条——经济状况长期非常糟糕，就像 20 世纪 30 年代那样。

Investment prices can be affected by what happens outside the financial system – wars, changes in government policies, new tax rules, civil turmoil, and other matters. But these events have a lasting effect on investments only if they push the economy from one to another of the four environments I’ve just described. The four economic categories are all-inclusive. At any time, one of them will predominate. So if you’re protected in these four situations, you’re protected in all situations.

投资价格可能会受到金融体系之外发生的事情的影响——战争、政府政策变化、新的税收规则、内乱和其他事件。但只有当这些事件将经济从我刚才描述的四种环境中的一种环境推向另一种环境时，它们才会对投资产生持久影响。四大经济范畴包罗万象。任何时候，其中之一都会占据主导地位。因此，如果您在这四种情况下受到保护，那么您在所有情况下都会受到保护。

Thus four investments provide coverage for all four economic environments:

因此，四项投资涵盖了所有四种经济环境：

STOCKS take advantage of prosperity. They tend to do poorly during periods of inflation, deflation, and tight money, but over time those periods don’t undo the gains that stocks achieve during periods of prosperity.

股票利用繁荣。在通货膨胀、通货紧缩和货币紧缩时期，它们往往表现不佳，但随着时间的推移，这些时期并不会抵消股票在繁荣时期取得的收益。

BONDS also take advantage of prosperity. In addition, they profit when interest rates collapse during a deflation. You should expect bonds to do poorly during times of inflation and tight money.

债券也利用了繁荣。此外，当通货紧缩期间利率崩溃时，他们还能获利。您应该预期债券在通货膨胀和货币紧缩时期表现不佳。

GOLD not only does well during times of intense inflation, it does very well. In the 1970s, gold rose twenty times over as the inflation rate soared to its peak of 15% in 1980. Gold generally does poorly during times of prosperity, tight money, and deflation.

黄金不仅在通货膨胀剧烈时期表现良好，而且表现非常出色。 20 世纪 70 年代，随着通货膨胀率飙升至 1980 年 15% 的峰值，黄金价格上涨了 20 倍。在繁荣、货币紧缩和通货紧缩时期，黄金通常表现不佳。

CASH is most profitable during a period of tight money. Not only is it a liquid asset that can give you purchasing power when your income and investments might be ailing, but the rise in interest rates increases the return on your dollars. Cash also becomes more valuable during a deflation as prices fall. Cash is essentially neutral during a time of prosperity, and it is a loser during times of inflation.

现金在资金紧张时期最有利可图。它不仅是一种流动资产，可以在您的收入和投资陷入困境时为您提供购买力，而且利率的上升会增加您的美元回报。在通货紧缩期间，随着价格下跌，现金也会变得更有价值。现金在繁荣时期本质上是中性的，而在通货膨胀时期则是输家。

Any attempt to be clever in assigning portions to the investments probably will do more harm than good. I prefer the simplicity of allocating 25% to each of the four investments.

任何巧妙地分配投资部分的尝试都可能弊大于利。我更喜欢为四项投资分别分配 25% 的简单做法。

The only maintenance required is to check the portfolio’s makeup once a year.

唯一需要的维护是每年检查一次投资组合的构成。

If any of the four investments has become worth less than 15%, or more than 35%, of the portfolio’s overall value, you need to restore the original percentages.

如果四项投资中任何一项的价值低于投资组合总价值的 15% 或超过 35%，您需要恢复原始百分比。

When you make your once-a-year check of the portfolio’s value, if all four investments are within the 15-35% range, no rebalancing is necessary. During the year, if you happen to notice that there’s been a big change in investment prices, you may want to check the values of the investments. Again, if any investment has strayed outside the 15-35% range, go ahead and rebalance the entire portfolio.

当您每年检查一次投资组合的价值时，如果所有四项投资都在 15-35% 的范围内，则无需重新平衡。在这一年中，如果您碰巧注意到投资价格发生了较大变化，您可能需要检查投资的价值。再次强调，如果任何投资偏离了 15-35% 的范围，请继续重新平衡整个投资组合。

The test of a Permanent Portfolio is whether it provides peace of mind. A Permanent Portfolio should let you watch the evening news or read investment publications in total serenity. No actual or threatened event should trouble you, because you’ll know that your portfolio is protected against it.

永久投资组合的考验在于它是否能让人安心。永久投资组合应该让您完全平静地观看晚间新闻或阅读投资出版物。任何实际或威胁的事件都不应该困扰您，因为您知道您的投资组合受到保护。

If someone warns about the “alarming parallels” between the current decade and the 1920s, you shouldn’t wonder whether you need to sell all your stocks. You’ll know that your Permanent Portfolio will take care of you – even if next year turns out to be 1929 revisited. The deflation that could devastate stocks would push interest rates downward and bring big profits for your bonds.

如果有人警告当前十年与 1920 年代之间存在“惊人的相似之处”，您不应该怀疑是否需要出售所有股票。你会知道你的永久投资组合会照顾你——即使明年是 1929 年。可能摧毁股票的通货紧缩会压低利率，并为你的债券带来巨额利润。

When someone claims the inflation rate is headed back to 15%, you shouldn’t wonder whether to dump all your bonds. You’ll know that the gain in your Permanent Portfolio’s gold would far outweigh any losses on the bonds.

当有人声称通货膨胀率将回到 15% 时，您不应该考虑是否要抛售所有债券。您会知道，您的永久投资组合中黄金的收益将远远超过债券的任何损失。

When someone announces that a new debt crisis is on the way, or that a bull market is about to begin in stocks, bonds, or gold, you won’t feel pressured to decide whether he’s right. You’ll know that the Permanent Portfolio will respond favorably to any eventuality.

当有人宣布新的债务危机即将来临，或者股票、债券或黄金的牛市即将开始时，你不会感到有压力去判断他是否正确。您会知道，永久投资组合将对任何意外情况做出积极的反应。

I can’t list every potential event. So if you become concerned by any possibility, reread this chapter and you should be reassured that there’s an investment in your Permanent Portfolio that will cover you if the worst should occur. Whatever the potential crisis or opportunity, your Permanent Portfolio should already be taking care of you.

我无法列出所有潜在事件。因此，如果您担心任何可能性，请重读本章，您应该放心，您的永久投资组合中的投资将在最坏的情况发生时为您提供保障。无论潜在的危机或机遇是什么，您的永久投资组合应该已经在照顾您了。

The portfolio can’t guarantee a profit every year; no portfolio can. It won’t outperform the hotshot advisor in his best year. And it won’t outperform the best investment of the year. But it can give you the confidence that no crisis will destroy you, the assurance that your savings are secure and growing in all circumstances, and the knowledge that you’re no longer vulnerable to the mistakes in judgment that you or the best advisor could so easily make.

投资组合不能保证每年盈利；没有投资组合可以。它不会比最好的一年中的热门顾问表现更好。而且它的表现也不会超过年度最佳投资。但它可以让您相信没有任何危机会摧毁您，保证您的储蓄在任何情况下都是安全且增长的，并让您知道您不再容易受到您或最好的顾问可能会出现的判断错误的影响。轻松制作。

Speculation 投机

Rule 12: Speculate only with money you can afford to lose.规则 12：仅用您可以承受损失的资金进行投机。

If you want to try to beat the market, set up a second — separate — portfolio with which you can speculate to your heart’s content. But make sure this portfolio contains no more of your wealth than you can afford to lose.

如果您想尝试击败市场，请建立第二个单独的投资组合，您可以用它进行随心所欲的投机。但请确保该投资组合中包含的财富不超过您可以承受的损失。

I call this second pool of money a “Variable Portfolio” because its investments will vary as your outlook for the future changes. It might be all or part in stocks or gold or something else — whatever looks good at any time — or just in cash. You can take chances with the Variable Portfolio because you know that, whatever happens, no loss can be devastating. You can lose only the money you’ve already decided isn’t precious to you.

我将第二个资金池称为“可变投资组合”，因为它的投资会随着您对未来前景的变化而变化。它可能全部或部分是股票、黄金或其他东西——任何时候看起来不错的东西——或者只是现金。您可以利用可变投资组合冒险，因为您知道，无论发生什么，损失都不会是毁灭性的。你只能损失那些你已经认为对你来说并不珍贵的钱。

International Diversification国际多元化

Rule 13: Keep some assets outside the country in which you live.规则 13：将一些资产保留在您居住的国家/地区之外。

Don’t allow everything you own to be where your government can touch it. By having something outside the reach of your government, you’ll be less vulnerable — and you’ll feel less vulnerable. You’ll no longer have to worry so much about what the government will do next.

不要让你拥有的一切都在政府可以触及的地方。通过拥有政府无法掌控的东西，你会变得不那么脆弱——而且你也会感觉不那么脆弱。您将不再需要担心政府下一步会做什么。

For example, maintaining a foreign bank account is quite simple; it’s little different from having a mail or Internet account with an American bank or broker.

例如，维护外国银行账户非常简单；这与在美国银行或经纪人处拥有邮件或互联网帐户没什么不同。

Keeping some investments abroad provides safe and easy protection against surprises that might happen anywhere – confiscation of gold holdings by the government, exchange controls, civil disorder, even war.

将一些投资保留在国外可以安全、轻松地防止任何地方可能发生的意外事件——政府没收黄金持有量、外汇管制、内乱，甚至战争。

No one knows how the people elected in the coming years might choose to solve the economic problems the country will face. It might strike them that the quick and easy solution is to take your property – as has happened so often already. Your assets will be safe even if war, civil disorder, a weakening of law enforcement, or a physical catastrophe should disrupt record-keeping in your own country.

没有人知道未来几年当选的人民会如何选择解决该国将面临的经济问题。他们可能会想到，快速而简单的解决方案就是拿走你的财产——就像已经经常发生的那样。即使战争、内乱、执法削弱或自然灾害破坏了您所在国家的记录保存，您的资产也将是安全的。

Your entire estate will no longer be vulnerable to economic, political, or legal setbacks in your own country.

您的整个财产将不再容易受到您所在国家的经济、政治或法律挫折的影响。

Geographic diversification is a necessary part of making sure the Permanent Portfolio can handle whatever hazard materializes.

地理多元化是确保永久投资组合能够应对发生的任何危险的必要组成部分。

Tax Shelters 避税所

Rule 14: Beware of tax-avoidance schemes.规则 14：谨防避税计划。

Tax rates are still low enough in the U.S. that you might gain very little from the risk and effort of constructing elaborate tax shelters. And a great deal of money has been lost by people who hoped to beat the tax system. The losses came from investments that provided special tax advantages but didn’t make economic sense, and from tax shelters that were disallowed by the IRS — incurring penalties and interest on top of the liabilities.

美国的税率仍然很低，您可能从构建精心设计的避税所的风险和努力中获得的收益微乎其微。希望击败税收制度的人们损失了大量金钱。损失来自提供特殊税收优惠但没有经济意义的投资，以及美国国税局不允许的避税政策——除了负债之外还会产生罚款和利息。

There are a number of simple ways available to minimize taxes — through such things as IRAs and 401(k) plans. Take advantage of these tax reduction plans. These plans are effective but non-controversial. They won’t come back to haunt you.Tax deferral is the basic method for reducing the tax burden on your investment program. With tax deferral, the money you don’t pay in taxes today can work to produce more earnings every year until you finally have to pay the tax.

有许多简单的方法可以减少税收——例如 IRA 和 401(k) 计划。利用这些减税计划。这些计划是有效的，但没有争议。他们不会回来困扰您。延期纳税是减轻您的投资计划税负的基本方法。通过递延纳税，您今天未缴纳税款的钱可以每年产生更多收入，直到您最终必须纳税。

Questions 问题

Rule 15: Ask the right questions规则 15：提出正确的问题

In what economic circumstances is the investment’s price likely to go down?

在什么经济情况下投资价格可能会下降？

Are other investments in your portfolio likely to take up the slack by gaining in those same circumstances?

在同样的情况下，您投资组合中的其他投资是否有可能通过获利来填补空缺？

Under what circumstances could I lose a substantial share – 20% or more – of my investment?

在什么情况下我可能会损失投资的大量份额（20% 或更多）？

Under what circumstances could my entire investment be lost?

在什么情况下我可能会损失全部投资？

Would I have any residual liability – that is, can I lose even more than the cash I invested?

我是否会承担任何剩余责任——也就是说，我的损失是否会超过我投资的现金？

Interest rates generally reflect an investment’s risk. A higher interest rate means there’s a greater possibility the capital can be lost – through default or inflation.

利率通常反映投资风险。利率越高意味着资本损失的可能性就越大——通过违约或通货膨胀。

Under what circumstances, if any, is the investment likely to appreciate?

在什么情况下（如果有的话）投资可能会升值？

Under what circumstances, if any, is the investment likely to depreciate?

在什么情况下（如果有）投资可能会贬值？

In good circumstances for the investment, will the overall return – yield plus capital appreciation – help your portfolio overcome losses in other investments?

在投资环境良好的情况下，整体回报（收益率加资本增值）是否会帮助您的投资组合克服其他投资的损失？

If the investment is a mutual fund, you want the fund with the lowest yield – other things being equal. Any dividend paid by a mutual fund simply reduces the price of your shares

如果投资是共同基金，您希望选择收益率最低的基金——其他条件相同。共同基金支付的任何股息只会降低您的股票价格

“Is this company a potential takeover candidate?”

“这家公司是潜在的收购候选者吗？”

The crowd isn’t always wrong, but you can’t make much betting with it – because you will buy at a price that’s already high. By going against the crowd, you buy when an investment is out of favor and cheap; if it does succeed, there’s a long way for it to go up. So the most important factor in speculating is whether you expect something that most people don’t expect. For example, the time to consider buying inflation hedges speculatively is when most people believe inflation is under control. The time to consider buying a particular company is when everyone knows what a dog it is – not when everyone talks about its great promise. Unpopularity doesn’t guarantee profits, but you’ll never make a killing with a popular investment.

大众并不总是错误的，但你不能用它下太多赌注——因为你会以已经很高的价格购买。通过逆众人而行，你可以在某项投资不受欢迎且价格便宜时买入；如果它真的成功了，它还有很长的路要走。因此，投机时最重要的因素是你是否期待大多数人没有预料到的东西。例如，当大多数人认为通胀受到控制时，就应该考虑投机性购买通胀对冲。考虑购买一家特定公司的时机是当每个人都知道它是什么狗的时候，而不是当每个人都谈论它的伟大前景时。不受欢迎并不能保证利润，但你永远不会通过受欢迎的投资赚大钱。

“Do the technical factors favor the investment now?”

“现在技术因素是否有利于投资？”

You must have an investment plan. Without a plan, you will be tossed and turned by all the conflicting ideas you read and hear- – and you’ll never ask the right questions. With a plan, you’ll have a basis for evaluating whatever you hear. You’ll know to ask the questions that help you determine whether an investment furthers your plan.

您必须有一个投资计划。如果没有计划，你会被你读到和听到的所有相互冲突的想法搞得晕头转向——而且你永远不会提出正确的问题。有了计划，你就有了评估你听到的一切的基础。您将知道如何提出问题来帮助您确定一项投资是否可以推进您的计划。

Enjoyment 享受

Rule 16: Enjoy yourself with a budget for pleasure.规则 16：为快乐制定预算，享受快乐。

Your wealth is of no value if you can’t enjoy it. But it’s easy to spend too much while the money’s flowing in. To enjoy your wealth, establish a budget of money that you can spend yearly without concern. If you stay within that amount, you can feel free to blow the money on cars, trips, anything you want — knowing that you aren’t blowing your future.

如果你无法享受你的财富，它就没有价值。但当资金流入时，很容易花太多。为了享受你的财富，制定一个你每年可以无忧无虑地支出的资金预算。如果你保持在这个数额之内，你就可以随意把钱花在汽车、旅行或任何你想要的东西上——因为你知道你不会毁掉你的未来。

When in Doubt . . .有疑问时。。。

Rule 17: Whenever you’re in doubt about a course of action, it is always better to err on the side of safety.规则 17：每当你对某项行动方案有疑问时，为了安全起见总是更好。

If you pass up an opportunity to increase your fortune, another one will be along soon enough. But if you lose your life savings just once, you might never get a chance to replace it.

如果你错过了一个增加财富的机会，另一个机会很快就会出现。但如果你一生的积蓄只损失一次，你可能永远没有机会弥补。

If you wind up losing something, let it be only an opportunity that was lost – not precious capital. People rarely go broke playing it safe. But many go broke taking great risks or making investments they know too little about.

如果你最终失去了一些东西，那只是失去了一个机会，而不是宝贵的资本。人们很少会因谨慎行事而破产。但许多人因承担巨大风险或进行自己知之甚少的投资而破产。

If you’re hesitating, it’s because you don’t yet know enough about the investment or the problem to make a confident decision. That means you shouldn’t take the plunge until you know more and you’re sure you understand all the ramifications.

如果您犹豫不决，那是因为您对投资或问题还不够了解，无法做出自信的决定。这意味着在您了解更多并且确定了解所有后果之前，您不应该冒险尝试。

The premise for speculation is that you’re more astute than most other investors – that you understand the market better, that you have information not available to other investors, that you can make better decisions, or that your interpretation of available information is especially perceptive. The elements of speculation are timing, forecasting, trading systems, and selection. Any time you use any of these tactics you’re speculating.

投机的前提是你比大多数其他投资者更精明——你更了解市场，你拥有其他投资者无法获得的信息，你可以做出更好的决策，或者你对可用信息的解释特别敏锐。投机的要素包括时机、预测、交易系统和选择。每当你使用任何这些策略时，你都在猜测。

Investment forecasts can be exciting. But in other areas of our lives, we think of fortune-tellers as entertainers.

投资预测可能令人兴奋。但在我们生活的其他领域，我们将算命师视为艺人。

Forecasts are not entirely useless. Someone’s predictions can help you recognize that your own expectations for the future aren’t the only possible outcome. This can help keep you humble and prudent.

预测并非完全无用。某人的预测可以帮助您认识到您自己对未来的期望并不是唯一可能的结果。这可以帮助您保持谦虚和谨慎。

If you come to feel a given event is quite possible but most people disagree with you, the market probably will provide a big payoff if you bet on that event and prove to be right. So if you like to watch the investment markets closely and you see a potential future that most people are ignoring, you may want to make a small speculation with money you can afford to lose.

如果你觉得某个特定事件很有可能发生，但大多数人不同意你的观点，那么如果你押注于该事件并被证明是正确的，市场可能会提供巨大的回报。因此，如果您喜欢密切关注投资市场，并且看到了大多数人忽视的潜在未来，那么您可能想用可以承受损失的资金进行小额投机。

A sure way to lose what you’ve accumulated is to risk the funds that are precious to you on the idea that some event is inevitable.

失去你所积累的财富的一个肯定的方法就是冒着对你来说宝贵的资金的风险，因为你认为某些事件是不可避免的。

In 1970, the chief gold trader at the largest Swiss bank told a friend of mine that the gold price would never go above $40. When asked how he could be so sure, the trader replied, “Because we control the market.”

1970 年，瑞士最大银行的首席黄金交易员告诉我的一位朋友，金价永远不会超过 40 美元。当被问及他为何如此确定时，该交易员回答说：“因为我们控制着市场。”

“Insiders” are no more help than fortune tellers or high-priced pros.

“内部人士”并不比算命先生或高价专业人士更有帮助。

You can protect yourself against the possibility of institutional crisis by using more than one institution. You can protect yourself against the failings of individuals by relying only on yourself. And you can protect yourself against investment roller coasters by diversifying across investment markets.

您可以通过使用多个机构来保护自己免受机构危机的影响。仅依靠自己就可以保护自己免受个人失败的影响。您可以通过投资市场多元化来保护自己免受投资过山车的影响。

Split the 25% stock-market portion among three mutual funds.

将 25% 的股票市场份额分配给三个共同基金。

For the bond portion, you don’t want to have to monitor credit risk, so buy only U.S. Treasury bonds. So long as the U.S. government has the ability to tax people or print money to pay its bills, there is virtually no credit risk.

对于债券部分，您不想监控信用风险，因此只购买美国国债。只要美国政府有能力向人们征税或印钞票来支付账单，就几乎不存在信用风险。

Put the 25% in the Treasury bond issue that currently has the longest time until it matures. That will be close to 30 years. Ten years later, the bond will have only 20 years to maturity; at that time replace it with a new 30-year bond.

将25%投入目前到期时间最长的国债。这将是接近30年。 10年后，该债券的到期期限只剩下20年；届时用新的30年期债券替换它。

Buy bullion coins – coins whose only value is the gold bullion they contain. They sell for about 3-5% more per ounce than gold bullion. That means a one-ounce coin will sell for about 310-315 if the price of gold is $300 an ounce.

购买金币——其唯一价值在于其所含金条的硬币。每盎司的售价比金条高出约 3-5%。这意味着，如果金价为每盎司 300 美元，一枚 1 盎司硬币的售价约为 310 至 315 美元。

The cash portion should be kept in a money market fund investing only in short-term U.S. Treasury securities, so that you don’t have to evaluate credit risk. These securities are safer than bank accounts and other debt instruments. If your cash budget is large enough, divide your holdings between two or three funds – for further protection against the unthinkable.

现金部分应保留在仅投资于短期美国国债的货币市场基金中，这样您就不必评估信用风险。这些证券比银行账户和其他债务工具更安全。如果您的现金预算足够大，请将您持有的资金分成两到三支基金，以进一步防范不可想象的情况。

The value of real estate in your portfolio is indivisible, and everything else must accommodate it. Just like a 15-foot piano in the living room, you have to arrange the rest of the furniture around it.

您的投资组合中的房地产价值是不可分割的，其他一切都必须容纳它。就像客厅里有一架15英尺的钢琴一样，你必须将其余的家具布置在它周围。

Your house is a consumption item – the place where you live and enjoy your life.

你的房子是一种消费品——你居住和享受生活的地方。

Don’t play games with your Permanent Portfolio. Don’t wait for any investment to become cheaper before you buy it. And don’t go overboard investing in something that happens to be doing well now. Just put 25% in each of the four categories.

不要用你的永久投资组合玩游戏。不要等到任何投资变得更便宜才购买。并且不要过度投资目前表现良好的事物。只需将 25% 分配给四个类别即可。

No matter how strong your expectations about the near future, you could easily be mistaken. And the point of the Permanent Portfolio is to ignore your own expectations and let the portfolio take care of you no matter what may come.

无论您对不久的将来的期望有多么强烈，您都可能很容易犯错。永久投资组合的要点是忽略您自己的期望，让投资组合照顾您，无论发生什么。

Fund it with equal portions of all four investments and don’t worry over which is going to do best. It is a package of investments that provides the safety you need. Tear apart the package and you tear apart the safety.

用所有四项投资的同等比例为其提供资金，不用担心哪一项效果最好。这是一揽子投资，可提供您所需的安全。撕开包装，就撕开了安全装置。

A foreign account in any country outside your own is a tremendous improvement over having everything in your home country. But some countries are more hospitable than others. And some have legal traditions that protect your privacy. I’ve always been partial to Switzerland and Austria, because each has a centuries-old tradition of respecting privacy and fending off inquiries from other governments.

在您自己国家以外的任何国家/地区拥有外国帐户都比在您的祖国拥有一切都有巨大的进步。但有些国家比其他国家更热情好客。有些有保护您隐私的法律传统。我一直偏爱瑞士和奥地利，因为这两个国家都有尊重隐私和拒绝其他政府询问的数百年传统。

If you buy and hold gold through the foreign bank, the gold most likely will be stored within the bank itself.

如果您通过外国银行购买并持有黄金，那么黄金很可能会存储在银行内部。

The secret – that things rarely work out as expected – is shared unwittingly by investors, brokers, advisors, newsletter writers, and financial journalists, few of whom can bring themselves to acknowledge it. Each wants to appear to be in command of the situation, on top of the markets, aware of what’s happening and what’s going to happen – and to appear as though everything that has already happened was anticipated. A professional needs to keep up this guise because he must look sharper than his competitors. Even investors often pose as members of the all-knowing – perhaps because no one wants to appear to be the only loser, and everyone else seems to be so smart.

这个秘密——事情很少会按预期发展——在不知不觉中被投资者、经纪人、顾问、时事通讯撰稿人和财经记者分享，但他们中很少有人能够承认这一点。每个人都希望表现出掌控局势、掌控市场、了解正在发生的事情以及将要发生的事情，并且看起来好像已经发生的一切都是预料之中的。专业人士需要保持这种伪装，因为他必须看起来比竞争对手更敏锐。甚至投资者也经常冒充无所不知的成员——也许是因为没有人愿意成为唯一的失败者，而其他人似乎都很聪明。

When you give up the search for certainty, an enormous burden is lifted from your shoulders.

当你放弃寻找确定性时，你肩上的巨大负担就卸下了。

The less you know – and the more honestly you recognize the limits of your knowledge – the more likely your investment program will turn out okay. Humility is accepting that you don’t know everything, or even everything about any particular topic, and it is an investor’s most vital asset. Arrogance eventually ruins any investor.

您知道的越少，并且您越诚实地认识到自己知识的局限性，您的投资计划就越有可能成功。谦虚意味着接受自己并不了解一切，甚至不了解任何特定主题的一切，这是投资者最重要的资产。傲慢最终会毁掉任何投资者。

The Rules of Life 生活规则

The rules of safe investing are little different from the rules of life: recognize that you live in an uncertain world, don’t expect the impossible, and don’t trust strangers. If you apply to your investments the same realistic attitude that produced your present wealth, you needn’t fear that you’ll ever go broke.

安全投资的规则与生活规则没什么不同：认识到你生活在一个不确定的世界，不要期待不可能的事情，不要相信陌生人。如果你对自己的投资采取与创造你现在的财富相同的现实态度，你就不必担心自己会破产。