Gold 黄金
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Nov 9, 2023
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brian1109
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来源：Brian Langis
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投资
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Gold 黄金
“It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head”. – Warren Buffett
“它是从非洲或其他地方的地下挖出来的。然后我们把它熔化，再挖一个洞，再把它埋起来，并付钱让人们站在周围看守它。它没有任何效用。任何从火星上观看的人都会摸不着头脑”。 - 沃伦·巴菲特
Gold deserves its own post because it’s such a unique asset. It’s nice and shiny. We all want more of it. I happened to be in the vault of the Federal Reserve of New York once (the one that gets robbed in the movie Die Hard III) where they stash gold bars from governments from all over the world (my idea of fun in NY). I can’t explain the powerful feeling of having one of these 27.5-lb bars in your hand, but it’s really nice. But no, I’m not writing to reminisce about my past gold exploration. When it comes to investing, gold is a different story. There are many ways to think about gold.
黄金值得拥有自己的地位，因为它是一种如此独特的资产。它漂亮又闪亮。我们都想要更多。我曾经碰巧去过纽约联邦储备银行的金库（电影《虎胆龙威 III》中被抢劫的那个金库），那里存放着来自世界各地政府的金条（我在纽约的乐趣）。我无法解释手里拿着一根 27.5 磅的酒吧的强烈感觉，但这真的很棒。但不，我写这篇文章并不是为了回忆我过去的黄金探索。在投资方面，黄金则是另一回事。思考黄金的方式有很多种。
There’s gold, the physical shiny metal. It makes nice jewelry. Everybody likes gold. It’s beautiful. It’s timeless. It’s universal. It’s inert. It doesn’t chemically react. That natural perpetuity is what gives it permanence. If I could take a time machine and go back two thousand years, my gold would buy me some nice things. It’s safe to say that the lust for gold will be there in the future too. People have pursued gold for centuries. Medieval alchemists tried to turn metals such as lead into gold. People have killed each other for it. Scrooge McDuck has a money vault full of gold where he dives in. It makes people dream. And it makes spouses happy.
有黄金，一种闪亮的物理金属。它可以制作精美的珠宝。每个人都喜欢黄金。很美丽。它是永恒的。这是通用的。它是惰性的。它不会发生化学反应。正是这种自然的永恒性赋予了它永恒的力量。如果我能乘坐时光机回到两千多年前，我的黄金会给我买一些好东西。可以肯定地说，未来对黄金的渴望也会存在。几个世纪以来，人们一直在追求黄金。中世纪的炼金术士试图将铅等金属变成黄金。人们为此互相残杀。史高治·麦克老鸭有一个装满黄金的金库，他可以跳入其中。它让人们梦想成真。它使配偶幸福。
There’s gold, the industrial input. Because of its inherent properties, some gold is used in certain industrial processes. Gold conducts electricity and does not tarnish. There’s a little bit of gold inside the iPhone. Gold is used for cosmetic purposes, like in teeth (it doesn’t rust and I’ve seen it in music videos).
有黄金，工业投入。由于其固有的特性，一些黄金被用于某些工业过程。黄金导电且不会变色。 iPhone 内部有一点金子。黄金用于美容目的，例如牙齿（它不会生锈，我在音乐视频中看到过它）。
There’s gold, the lingos that central banks stash in their vaults. Central banks use gold to diversify their reserves. Central banks hold a lot of the gold ever mined. Gold can back a currency that is subject to swings in value. Gold carries no credit or counterparty risks, it serves as a source of trust in a country.
还有黄金，这是央行存放在金库中的行话。中央银行使用黄金来实现储备多元化。各国央行持有大量已开采的黄金。黄金可以支持价值波动的货币。黄金不存在信用或交易对手风险，它是一个国家信任的来源。
There’s gold, the money. Money can take many forms. Monetary systems evolve. In ancient times we used cowry shells. In a more recent time paper currency was backed by a reserve of gold and silver. Maybe in the future, we will use some blockchain cryptocurrency thing where you can program money.
有黄金，有钱。金钱可以有多种形式。货币体系不断发展。在古代，我们使用贝壳。最近，纸币得到了黄金和白银储备的支持。也许在未来，我们会使用一些区块链加密货币，你可以在其中对货币进行编程。
There’s gold, the obsession. Some people are nuts about gold. They are called “gold bugs”. They are die-hard believers in gold. They advocate buying gold against an anticipated collapse in the currency or the world. They are all gloom and doom. They have cult-like behavior and none of it is grounded in rational behavior. They have a distorted view of the world and they believe it. That strong belief is what makes them very convincing. Gold bugs say that you should hold gold in case the “world goes to hell”. The parameters of what that means are quite large, but if it’s related to surviving, I lean towards guns, gas, food, and water. With that gold will come your way.
有黄金，有痴迷。有些人对黄金很着迷。它们被称为“金虫”。他们是黄金的铁杆信徒。他们主张购买黄金以应对预期的货币或世界崩溃。他们都是忧郁和厄运。他们有类似邪教的行为，但没有一个是基于理性行为的。他们对世界有扭曲的看法，但他们也相信这一点。正是这种坚定的信念使他们非常有说服力。黄金迷说，你应该持有黄金，以防“世界陷入地狱”。这意味着的参数相当大，但如果与生存有关，我倾向于枪支、汽油、食物和水。有了这些，黄金就会来到你的身边。
And there’s gold, the investment. Gold is often touted as a “safe haven”. A safe haven is where investors stash their assets when share prices crash, economies collapse, or when inflation wipes out a currency. A safe haven is supposed to preserve its owner’s capital. Safe havens are supposed to hold their value when nothing else is. Other safe-haven assets could be physical things like land, real estate, art, or other precious metals. You can print money, but not gold, or land.
还有黄金，投资。黄金经常被誉为“避风港”。避风港是投资者在股价暴跌、经济崩溃或通货膨胀消灭货币时存放资产的地方。避风港应该保护其所有者的资本。当没有其他东西存在时，避风港应该保持其价值。其他避险资产可能是土地、房地产、艺术品或其他贵金属等实物。你可以印钱，但不能印黄金或土地。
Gold has been prized as a store of value for millennia. But can it be trusted? At the time of writing, the year is 2023, and saying we live in a period of uncertainty is a bit of an understatement. It’s the gold bug dream environment. The one where you park your assets in gold. The ingredients are there. We have a war in Europe. We have nuclear threats from Russia. Iran is getting nukes. China is challenging the world order. The Middle East is blowing up. The economy might fall off a cliff. We have massive environmental problems. We have energy issues. Governments are running massive deficits financed by printing way too much money which leads to inflation and higher national debt which needs to be financed with more borrowed money. I could go on.
几千年来，黄金一直被视为一种价值储存手段。但这可以信任吗？在撰写本文时，今年是 2023 年，说我们生活在一个不确定的时期有点轻描淡写。这是金甲虫梦想的环境。您将资产存放在黄金中的一种。成分就在那里。我们在欧洲有一场战争。我们面临来自俄罗斯的核威胁。伊朗正在获得核武器。中国正在挑战世界秩序。中东正在爆炸。经济可能会跌落悬崖。我们面临着巨大的环境问题。我们有能源问题。政府通过印制过多的货币来筹集巨额赤字，这会导致通货膨胀和更高的国债，而这些债务需要通过更多的借钱来融资。我还可以继续说下去。
I might be overdramatic for effect but according to the gold bug’s doomsday checklist, it sounds like there’s never been a better time to buy gold. If I were a betting man, everything is lining up for gold to skyrocket in price and the dollar to crash. But nope. It’s that easy. Despite the apocalyptic atmosphere gold price is down 22% in 2022 and is barely flat for 2023 so far. And the dollar is up. What else do you need for gold to perform? That’s what I mean by “can it be trusted?”
我可能为了效果而过于戏剧化，但根据黄金迷的世界末日清单，听起来现在是购买黄金的最佳时机。如果我是一个赌徒，一切都在等待黄金价格飙升和美元暴跌。但不。就是这么简单。尽管存在世界末日的气氛，金价在 2022 年仍下跌了 22%，并且 2023 年迄今为止几乎持平。美元上涨了。黄金还需要什么表现？这就是我所说的“可信吗？”
Yes, gold makes nice jewelry and looks impressive in a vault. But it has its inconveniences. It doesn’t have an income stream. It doesn’t pay interest. It’s hard to value. It’s hard to use for everyday spending (it’s heavy and unsafe to carry around). You need a couple of guards if you are a baller. You need a safe to store it. You need insurance. Gold doesn’t always perform when it’s supposed to (like in moments of high inflation and crisis). Over long periods, gold has been a poor asset to own.
是的，黄金可以制作精美的珠宝，放在金库里看起来也令人印象深刻。但它也有其不便之处。它没有收入来源。它不支付利息。很难估价。它很难用于日常支出（它很重且携带不安全）。如果你是一名球员，你需要几个后卫。您需要一个保险箱来存放它。你需要保险。黄金并不总是在其应有的时候发挥作用（比如在高通胀和危机时期）。长期以来，黄金一直是一种不好持有的资产。
Gold at Work** **工作中的黄金
I’m not dismissing gold, or other precious metals by extension. I have seen gold at work. When I was abroad in emerging countries like Cambodia and Vietnam, many locals kept their assets in gold, other precious metals, or US dollars. There’s also the increased use of crypto-currencies, a gold proxy for some.
我并不是排斥黄金或其他贵金属。我在工作中看到了黄金。当我在柬埔寨和越南等新兴国家时，许多当地人将资产保留为黄金、其他贵金属或美元。加密货币的使用也有所增加，对某些人来说，加密货币是黄金替代品。
There a several reasons for this. First, the last thing you want is to stash your capital in local currency that is eaten away by high inflation. Or worse, at the risk of being confiscated by the government. That’s fast-tracking yourself to poverty. Second, you risk having your emerging market currency not being recognized. As in nobody wants it. Try showing up at your local bank branch with a bag full of Cambodian Riel notes, you will be welcome with a recycle bin. Or try using rubles outside of Russia. You might say it’s not fair, but turn the table around, do you want somebody to hand you a bag of Cambodian paper or US bills? Do you want to take the counter-party risk? I didn’t think. But gold is universal. You don’t have to explain what it is. Nobody turns down gold. And last, some countries have capital control in place, making it harder to move your money internationally.
这有几个原因。首先，您最不想看到的就是将资本存放在被高通胀吞噬的当地货币中。或者更糟糕的是，面临被政府没收的风险。这会让你自己快速走向贫困。其次，您可能面临新兴市场货币不被认可的风险。就像没有人想要它一样。尝试带着装满柬埔寨瑞尔纸币的袋子出现在您当地的银行分行，您将收到一个回收箱。或者尝试在俄罗斯境外使用卢布。你可能会说这不公平，但反过来，你想要有人递给你一袋柬埔寨纸还是美国钞票？您想承担交易对手风险吗？我没想到。但黄金是通用的。你不必解释它是什么。没有人会拒绝黄金。最后，一些国家实行资本管制，这使得你的资金更难在国际上转移。
That’s gold at work. I don’t blame them. I would have done the same thing as them if I was in their shoes.
这就是工作中的黄金。我不怪他们。如果我处于他们的立场，我也会做和他们一样的事情。
Fiat and the US Dollar
菲亚特和美元
The subject of fiat currencies comes up when you talk about gold. Fiat currencies have major flaws. High inflation can erase a fortune very quickly. Inflation is brutal on purchasing power. We all heard the story of what grandpa could buy with $1 in his youth. Governments constantly renege on their paper promises. Economies are mismanaged. Some default. Some redefaults. Some are invaded. But there’s one currency that’s king: that’s the US dollar. Why?
当您谈论黄金时，就会提到法定货币的话题。法定货币存在重大缺陷。高通胀可以很快抹去一笔财富。通货膨胀对购买力的影响是残酷的。我们都听过爷爷年轻时1美元能买什么的故事。各国政府不断违背纸面承诺。经济管理不善。有些默认。有些重新默认。有些被入侵了。但有一种货币才是王道：那就是美元。为什么？
Because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. The US possesses unique strengths. It has the strongest economy and the greatest capital markets giving the US an edge on global capital flow. Everybody loves the greenback. For those who are saying that the US dollar is worthless, I don’t see any of them throwing it in the trash.
因为美元是世界储备货币。美国拥有独特的优势。它拥有最强劲的经济和最大的资本市场，使美国在全球资本流动中具有优势。每个人都喜欢美元。对于那些说美元一文不值的人，我没有看到他们有人把它扔进垃圾桶。
Sustaining the achievement of world reserve currency status will be a challenge. One day the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency could be lost. It happened to other currencies in the past. I don’t know what form of payment we will use one hundred years from now. But today the US dollar is what makes the world go round. Despite the massive deficits and the money printing, the world relies on the full faith and credit of America’s Treasury Department (so far they pay their debt). Sure, we can trash the US and their “worthless” paper, but I don’t see anybody turning down a US$20 bill.
维持世界储备货币地位将是一项挑战。有一天，美元作为世界储备货币的地位可能会丧失。过去其他货币也曾发生过这种情况。我不知道一百年后我们会使用什么支付方式。但如今，美元是世界运转的动力。尽管存在巨额赤字和印钞，世界仍依赖于美国财政部的充分信任和信用（到目前为止，他们还清了债务）。当然，我们可以扔掉美国和他们的“毫无价值”的纸币，但我没有看到有人拒绝 20 美元的钞票。
Inflation is a major issue if you are holding cash. That dollar loses value over time. But despite what you read, stashing all your cash in gold is not a sound strategy. A better solution to inflation is to buy assets that grow and produce income, like companies with pricing power. Companies with pricing power have the competitive advantage of protecting their margins and passing on increased costs to customers. Maybe the company has a great brand, lacks competition, or simply has inelastic demand like gas and cigarettes.
如果您持有现金，通货膨胀是一个主要问题。随着时间的推移，美元会贬值。但不管你读到了什么，将所有现金存放在黄金中并不是一个明智的策略。应对通货膨胀的更好解决方案是购买能够增长并产生收入的资产，例如具有定价权的公司。拥有定价权的公司拥有保护利润并将增加的成本转嫁给客户的竞争优势。也许该公司拥有伟大的品牌，缺乏竞争，或者只是需求缺乏弹性，例如汽油和香烟。
Here’s a story to make my point. You probably never heard of Ronald Wayne. He’s the little-known third co-founder of Apple, with Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs. The Steves were kids in their 20s when Apple was founded in 1976 and Ronald, almost twice their age, acted as the “adult” in the room. After twelve days he bailed and sold his 10% stake for $800 and used it to buy gold. In a 2014 Bloomberg article, Wayne said that his savings have been in gold for 40 years and live off of his Social Security checks. At the time of writing, Apple is a $2.4 trillion company. A 10% stake would have made him one of the richest men in the world. As for his gold stake, I’m going to be generous and estimate he doubled his money.
这是一个故事来说明我的观点。您可能从未听说过罗纳德·韦恩。他是苹果公司鲜为人知的第三位联合创始人，与史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克和史蒂夫·乔布斯并列。 1976 年苹果公司成立时，史蒂夫一家都是 20 多岁的孩子，年龄几乎是他们两倍的罗纳德在房间里扮演着“成年人”的角色。 12 天后，他以 800 美元的价格出售了 10% 的股份，并用它购买了黄金。韦恩在 2014 年彭博社的一篇文章中表示，40 年来他的储蓄一直是黄金，靠社会保障支票生活。截至撰写本文时，Apple 是一家价值 2.4 万亿美元的公司。 10%的股份将使他成为世界上最富有的人之一。至于他的黄金股份，我会很慷慨，估计他的钱翻了一番。
I can see the pushback. Obviously, I cherry-picked the example just to prove my point and hindsight is 20/20. It’s never that easy. I could easily have gone the other where his 35. By the end of that decade, gold touched US$850. That’s a 2,300 percent gain in the 1970s.
我可以看到阻力。显然，我挑选这个例子只是为了证明我的观点，事后看来是 20/20。这从来都不是那么容易的事。我本可以轻松地选择另一个，让他 800 美元的股权头寸变成零。黄金确实有闪亮的时刻，就像 20 世纪 70 年代那样。 1971 年，黄金交易价格为 35 美元。到 20 世纪末，金价触及 850 美元。这在 20 世纪 70 年代增长了 2,300%。
Gold in your Portfolio
您投资组合中的黄金
Part of gold’s attraction comes down to personal preference. Some have strong feelings about it, others less so. For some, the gold investment shows up in jewelry, others in mining stocks or royalty companies.
黄金的吸引力部分取决于个人喜好。有些人对此有强烈的感觉，有些人则没有那么强烈的感觉。对于一些人来说，黄金投资体现在珠宝上，其他人则体现在矿业股票或特许权使用费公司上。
The elevator pitch on gold is “If the financial system collapses, well you still have your physical gold.” First, that’s a crappy elevator ride. Second, if the financial system collapses, we might have larger problems than the price of stocks. But I get the point. You want assets that are not correlated or linked to the financial systems.
关于黄金的电梯推销是“如果金融体系崩溃，那么你仍然拥有实物黄金。”首先，这是一次糟糕的电梯之旅。其次，如果金融体系崩溃，我们可能会遇到比股票价格更大的问题。但我明白了。您需要与金融系统不相关或链接的资产。
Gold has drawbacks:** **黄金也有缺点：
- No matter what price you forecast, it’s going to be wrong. 无论您预测什么价格，都将是错误的。
- Gold is volatile. You are betting that the price will go up. Gold is shiny and beautiful but it doesn’t guarantee high returns. 黄金波动较大。您打赌价格会上涨。黄金虽然闪亮美丽，但并不能保证高回报。
- But what’s the intrinsic value of gold? Nobody knows. How do you know it’s not 3000/oz? 但黄金的内在价值是多少？没人知道。您怎么知道它不是 500 美元/盎司或 3000 美元/盎司？
- Part of what drives the price of gold is fear. It tries to play the role of a ‘safe-haven’. 推动金价上涨的部分原因是恐惧。它试图扮演“避风港”的角色。
- If you are seeking income from your investments you might find gold less attractive since it doesn’t generate income. 如果您想从投资中寻求收入，您可能会发现黄金的吸引力较低，因为它不会产生收入。
- Investing in gold means allocating funds away from other potentially lucrative investment opportunities. 投资黄金意味着将资金从其他潜在有利可图的投资机会中分配出去。
- And gold doesn’t always shine when it’s supposed to. 金子并不总是在该发光的时候发光。
Gold does have a spot in your portfolio. Gold has been considered a reliable store of value for thousands of years. Gold is intended to serve as a potential hedge against adverse markets. It has a low correlation to the business cycle and other asset classes. It should play a stabilizer role. If you have some gold you can put it to work in very distressed environments and convert it to the ownership of enterprises on very advantageous terms. Gold has survived the test of time. And there’s one gold.
黄金确实在您的投资组合中占有一席之地。数千年来，黄金一直被认为是可靠的保值手段。黄金旨在作为不利市场的潜在对冲工具。它与商业周期和其他资产类别的相关性较低。应该起到稳定器的作用。如果你有一些黄金，你可以在非常困难的环境中使用它，并以非常优惠的条件将其转换为企业的所有权。黄金经受住了时间的考验。还有一枚金牌。
On that, I will you this Charlie Munger quote:
关于这一点，我将引用查理·芒格的名言：
“I don’t have the slightest interest in gold. I like understanding what works and what doesn’t in human systems. To me that’s not optional; that’s a moral obligation. If you’re capable of understanding the world, you have a moral obligation to become rational. And I don’t see how you become rational hoarding gold. Even if it works you’re a jerk.”
“我对黄金没有丝毫兴趣。我喜欢了解人类系统中什么有效、什么无效。对我来说，这不是可选的；这是一种道德义务。如果你有能力理解世界，你就有道德义务变得理性。我不明白你如何变得理性地囤积黄金。即使它有效，你也是个混蛋。”