Some Things I Think 我想的一些事情

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Apr 27, 2023

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来源：Collab Fund

Some Things I Think 我想的一些事情

The fastest way to get rich is to go slow. 致富最快的方法就是慢慢来。

Many beliefs are held because there is a social and tribal benefit to holding them, not necessarily because they’re true. 持有许多信念是因为持有它们对社会和部落有好处，不一定是因为它们是真的。

Nothing is more blinding than success caused by luck, because when you succeed without effort it’s easy to think, “I must be naturally talented.” 没有什么比运气带来的成功更让人眼花缭乱了，因为当你不费吹灰之力就成功时，很容易会想，“我一定是天生的。”

Social media makes more sense when you view it as a place people go to perform rather than a place to communicate. 当您将社交媒体视为人们去表演的地方而不是交流的地方时，它更有意义。

Comedy is the best way to teach about human behavior. George Carlin, Chris Rock, and Jerry Seinfeld have done more to enlighten others than 99.9% of psychology PhDs. 喜剧是教授人类行为的最佳方式。 George Carlin、Chris Rock 和 Jerry Seinfeld 在启发他人方面所做的工作比 99.9% 的心理学博士都多。

The best measure of wealth is what you have minus what you want. (By this measure, some billionaires are broke.) 财富的最佳衡量标准是你拥有的减去你想要的。（按照这个标准，一些亿万富翁已经破产了。）

The most valuable personal finance asset is not needing to impress anyone. 最有价值的个人理财资产不需要给任何人留下深刻印象。

Most financial debates are people with different time horizons talking over each other. 大多数金融辩论都是不同时间跨度的人互相讨论。

From school, I remember: Every good story I was told, but none of the formulas I memorized before a test. 在学校，我记得：我被告知的每一个好故事，但没有一个是我在考试前记住的公式。

It’s easiest to convince people that you’re special if they don’t know you well enough to see all the ways you’re not. 如果人们对你的了解不够深，看不到你不一样的地方，那么让他们相信你很特别是最容易的。

“People like you more when you are working towards something, not when you have it.” - Drake “当你为某件事而努力时，人们更喜欢你，而不是当你拥有它时。” - 德雷克

A lot of people seem to have a necessary level of stress, and when their life is going well they make up imaginary problems to fill the void. 很多人似乎都有必要的压力，当他们的生活进展顺利时，他们会编造假想的问题来填补空虚。

Few things are as persuasive as your own BS, while nothing is easier to identify than other people’s BS. 没有什么比您自己的废话更有说服力了，而没有什么比别人的废话更容易识别的了。

Everything is sales. 一切都是销售。

Every employee is replaceable. 每个员工都是可以更换的。

Those we admire most in sports, business, politics, and entertainment tend to share one quality: They knew when it was time to quit, time to pass the baton, time to disappear, in a way that preserved, even enhanced, their reputation. Nothing diminishes past success like overstaying your welcome. 我们在体育、商业、政治和娱乐领域最钦佩的人往往有一个共同的品质：他们知道什么时候该退出，什么时候传递接力棒，什么时候消失，以一种维护甚至提高他们声誉的方式。没有什么比在您的欢迎下逗留更能削弱过去的成功了。

The hardest thing when studying history is that you know how the story ends, which makes it impossible to put yourself in people’s shoes and imagine what they were thinking or feeling in the past. 研究历史最难的是你知道故事的结局，这使得你无法设身处地地想一想他们过去的想法或感受。

You can only ignore the critics if you also discount the praise. 如果您也对赞美不屑一顾，那么您只能无视批评者。

Related: Few traits are as destructive as an appetite for praise. 相关：很少有特征像对赞美的渴望那样具有破坏性。

There are two types of people: Those who want to know more and those who want to defend what they already know. 有两种类型的人：那些想要了解更多的人和那些想要捍卫他们已经知道的东西的人。

My jealousy of dogs: They can sit for hours doing absolutely nothing, appearing perfectly content. 我对狗的嫉妒：他们可以坐几个小时什么都不做，看起来非常满足。

A lot of people like making money more than they enjoy having money. The change, not the accumulated amount, is the thrill. 很多人喜欢赚钱胜过享受拥有金钱。变化，而不是累积的数量，才是刺激。

Matt Damon says, “You retard socially and emotionally the moment you become famous. Your experience of the world is never the same.” The same may be true – and far more common – for those who become wealthy. 马特达蒙说：“一旦你出名，你就会在社交和情感上迟钝。你对世界的体验永远不会相同。”对于那些变得富有的人来说，情况可能也是如此——而且更为普遍。

Most beliefs are self-validating. Angry people look for problems and find them everywhere, happy people seek out smiles and find them everywhere, pessimists look for trouble and find it everywhere. Brains are good at filtering inputs to focus on what you want to believe. 大多数信念都是自我验证的。愤怒的人找问题，到处找；快乐的人找笑，到处找；悲观的人找麻烦，到处找。大脑擅长过滤输入以专注于你想要相信的东西。

Few traits are as attractive as humility, but few are as common as vanity. 很少有特质像谦逊一样吸引人，但也很少像虚荣一样普遍。

Everyone wants to be lucky and to be admired, but no one admires a person for their luck. 每个人都想幸运和被人仰慕，但没有人会因为运气而仰慕一个人。

The market is rational but investors play different games and those games look irrational to people playing a different game. 市场是理性的，但投资者玩不同的游戏，而这些游戏在玩不同游戏的人看来是不合理的。

A big problem with bubbles is the reflexive association between wealth and wisdom, so a bunch of crazy ideas are taken seriously because a temporarily rich person said it. 泡沫的一个大问题是财富和智慧之间的反身联系，所以一堆疯狂的想法被认真对待，因为一个一时暴富的人说了出来。

Logic doesn’t persuade people. Clarity, storytelling, and appealing to self-interest do. 逻辑说服不了人。清晰、讲故事和诉诸自身利益。

You only know someone well if you can correctly predict how they will react in stressful situations. 如果你能正确预测他们在压力情况下的反应，你就很了解他们。

There is a big difference between an expert, whose talent should be celebrated, and a guru, whose bad ideas should never be questioned. 才华横溢的专家和大师的坏主意不应该受到质疑，两者之间有很大的区别。

Past performance increases confidence more than ability. 过去的表现比能力更能增加信心。

Happiness is the gap between expectations and reality, so the irony is that nothing is more pessimistic than someone full of optimism. They are bound to be disappointed. 幸福是期望与现实之间的差距，所以具有讽刺意味的是，没有什么比充满乐观的人更悲观了。他们注定要失望。

In social fields, very few things are true all the time. “Too many theories try too hard to be laws,” says Carl von Clausewitz. 在社会领域，很少有事情是始终如一的。 Carl von Clausewitz 说：“太多的理论太过努力成为定律。”

The most important decision most people will ever make is whether, when, and whom to marry. But that topic is never taught in school. It can’t be – everyone’s different, and you can’t reduce it to a formula or a statistic. 大多数人做过的最重要的决定是是否结婚、何时结婚以及与谁结婚。但是学校从来没有教过这个话题。不可能——每个人都不一样，你不能把它简化为一个公式或一个统计数据。

I’ve often wondered how many personal bankruptcies and financial troubles were caused by spending that brought no joy to begin with. It’s a double loss: not only are you in trouble, but you didn’t even have fun getting there. 我经常想知道有多少个人破产和财务问题是由一开始没有带来快乐的支出造成的。这是双重损失：您不仅遇到了麻烦，而且您甚至没有到达那里的乐趣。

Nothing leads to success like unshakable faith in one big idea, and nothing sets the seeds of your downfall like an unshakable faith to one big idea. 没有什么比对一个大创意的坚定信念更能通向成功，没有什么比对一个大创意的坚定信念更能为你的垮台埋下种子。

There are two types of successful people: those with imposter syndrome, and sociopaths. 有两种类型的成功人士：冒名顶替综合症和反社会人士。

The bust is only dangerous if you depend on the boom. 只有当你依赖繁荣时，萧条才是危险的。

“Reality will pay you back in equal proportion to your delusion.” - Will Smith “现实会以与你的错觉相同的比例回报你。” - 威尔史密斯

Every five to seven years people forget that recessions occur every five to seven years. 每五到七年，人们就会忘记衰退每五到七年发生一次。

Many people check their portfolios every day but their blood pressure every few years, if even that. 许多人每天检查他们的投资组合，但每隔几年检查一次血压，即使如此。

The pessimists can be wrong if just a few big things go right. 如果只有几件大事是正确的，悲观主义者可能是错误的。

The most important communication skill is knowing when to shut up. 最重要的沟通技巧是知道什么时候该闭嘴。

“It’s good to have people in your life who you don’t want to disappoint.” - Buffett “生活中有不想让你失望的人，这很好。” - 巴菲特

Not caring about temporary things, and obsessing over permanent things, is underrated. 不关心暂时的事情，而迷恋永久的事情，是被低估的。

Lots of things are factually true but contextually nonsense. 很多事情实际上是正确的，但在上下文中是胡说八道。

Economies run in cycles but people forecast in straight lines. 经济以周期运行，但人们以直线进行预测。

You are twice as gullible as you think you are – four times if you disagree with that statement. 你比你认为的要容易上当受骗的两倍——如果你不同意那个说法的话，是四倍。

Price is what you pay, value is whatever you want Excel to say. 价格是您支付的价格，价值是您希望 Excel 表达的任何内容。

Bad luck is easy to identify when you fail, but good luck is easy to ignore when you succeed 失败时霉运容易辨认，成功时好运容易忽略

“Men resist randomness, markets resist prophecy.” - Maggie Mahar “人抗拒随机性，市场抗拒预言。” - 玛姬玛哈

People tend to be obsessed with harm posed by others (terrorism, crime) while oblivious to much greater self-inflicted harms (poor diet, no exercise). 人们往往沉迷于他人造成的伤害（恐怖主义、犯罪），而对自己造成的更大伤害（不良饮食、不运动）视而不见。

We underestimate the importance of control. Camping is fun, even when you’re cold. Being homeless is miserable, even when you’re warm. 我们低估了控制的重要性。露营很有趣，即使你很冷。无家可归是痛苦的，即使你很暖和。

So much of what people call “conviction” is actually a willful disregard for facts that might change their minds. 很多人们所谓的“信念”实际上是对可能改变他们想法的事实的故意无视。

In school they tell you your paper must be a minimum of five pages long. In the real world you have five seconds to catch someone’s attention before they’re bored and move on. 在学校里，他们告诉你你的论文必须至少有五页长。在现实世界中，您有五秒钟的时间来吸引某人的注意力，然后他们就会感到无聊并继续前进。

“Learn enough from history to respect one another’s delusions.” - Will + Ariel Durant “从历史中吸取足够的教训，尊重彼此的错觉。” - 威尔+阿里尔杜兰特

There is an “ideal” net worth for everyone, when money not only stops bringing pleasure but becomes a social liability. 每个人都有一个“理想”的净资产，这时金钱不仅不再带来快乐，反而成为一种社会责任。

“If you only wished to be happy, this could be easily accomplished; but we wish to be happier than other people, and this is always difficult, for we believe others to be happier than they are.” - Montesquieu “如果你只想快乐，这很容易做到；但我们希望比其他人更快乐，这总是很困难，因为我们相信别人比他们更快乐。” ——孟德斯鸠

With the right incentives, people can be led to believe and defend almost anything. 有了正确的激励，人们可以被引导去相信和捍卫几乎任何事情。

Good marketing wins in the short run and good products win in the long run. 好的营销赢短期，好的产品赢长期。

“Judge talent at its best and character at its worst.” - Lord Acton “在最好的时候评判人才，在最坏的时候评判品格。” - 阿克顿勋爵

Net worth goes from $0 to $1 million: Ecstasy. Net worth goes from $10 million to $1 million: Despondency. Can we agree that all wealth is relative? 净资产从 0 美元到 100 万美元：摇头丸。净资产从 1000 万美元增加到 100 万美元：沮丧。我们能同意所有财富都是相对的吗？

Three legal investment strategies: Be smarter than others, be luckier than others, be more patient than others. That’s the whole list. 三种合法的投资策略：比别人聪明，比别人幸运，比别人耐心。这就是整个清单。

The most productive hour of your day often looks the laziest. Good ideas rarely come during meetings – they come while going for a walk, or sitting on the couch, or taking a shower. 一天中最有效率的时间通常看起来是最懒惰的。好主意很少在会议期间产生——它们是在散步、坐在沙发上或洗澡时产生的。

Nothing destroys relationships – in love and careers – like being needy. 在爱情和事业中，没有什么比贫穷更能破坏人际关系了。

Schools are good at measuring intelligence but not great at measuring passion, endurance, and character, which tend to be more important than intelligence in the long run. 学校擅长衡量智力，但不擅长衡量激情、耐力和性格，从长远来看，这些往往比智力更重要。

The majority of what you know comes from the experiences you’ve had and the people you’ve met, both of which are largely out of your control. 你所知道的大部分内容来自于你的经历和你遇到的人，这两者在很大程度上都是你无法控制的。

Average performance sustained for an above-average period of time leads to extraordinary performance. This is true not just in investing but careers, relationships, and parenting. 平均表现持续超过平均水平的时间会导致非凡的表现。这不仅适用于投资，也适用于职业、人际关系和育儿。

I recently came across something called the rule of thirds: One-third of days you should feel amazing. One-third of days should feel OK. One-third of days should be crappy. That’s a good, balanced, realistic life. 我最近遇到了一个叫做三分法则的东西：三分之一的日子你应该感觉很棒。三分之一的日子应该感觉不错。三分之一的日子应该是糟糕的。那是一种美好、平衡、现实的生活。

The same traits needed for huge success are the same traits that increase the odds of failure. We should be careful praising winners or criticizing failures, because they often made similar decisions with different degrees of luck. 巨大成功所需的相同特征与增加失败几率的相同特征相同。我们应该谨慎地赞美成功者或批评失败者，因为他们往往会做出类似的决定，但运气程度不同。

Every generation is disappointed in their kids, partly because things typically get better over time, and you become resentful as you see younger generations bypassing problems you had to overcome. 每一代人都对他们的孩子感到失望，部分原因是事情通常会随着时间的推移而变得更好，当你看到年轻一代绕过你必须克服的问题时，你会变得怨恨。

Vaccines can be amazing at one point in time but lose effectiveness as the virus they were targeting adapts and evolves into something new. The same is true for business and investing strategies: What works wonders in one era might flop the next as the world evolves. 疫苗在某个时间点可能会令人惊叹，但随着它们所针对的病毒适应并演化成新的东西而失去效力。商业和投资策略也是如此：随着世界的发展，在一个时代创造奇迹的东西可能会在下一个时代失败。

A good test when reading the news is to constantly ask, “Will I still care about this story in a year? Two years? Five years?” 阅读新闻的一个很好的测试是不断地问，“一年后我还会关心这个故事吗？两年？ 5年？”

A good bet in economics: the past wasn’t as good as you remember, the present isn’t as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. 一个不错的经济学赌注：过去没有你记忆中的那么好，现在没有你想象的那么糟糕，未来会比你预期的更好。