我如何看待债务
type
Post
status
Published
date
May 6, 2024
slug
debt
summary
tags
人生感悟
category
生活虾
icon
password
How I Think About Debt
我如何看待债务
Apr 30, 2024 ** **2024 年 4 月 30 日---
SHARE ↓** **分享↓
Japan has 140 businesses that are at least 500 years old. A few claim to have been operating continuously for more than 1,000 years.
日本有 140 家拥有至少 500 年历史的企业。有一些声称已经连续运行了 1000 多年。
It’s astounding to think what these businesses have endured – dozens of wars, emperors, catastrophic earthquakes, tsunamis, depressions, on and on, endlessly. And yet they keep selling, generation after generation.
想想这些企业所经历的一切就令人震惊——数十次战争、皇帝、灾难性地震、海啸、萧条等等，无休无止。但他们一代又一代地继续销售。
These ultra-durable businesses are called “shinise,” and studies of them show they tend to share a common characteristic: they hold tons of cash, and no debt. That’s part of how they endure centuries of constant calamities.
这些超耐用的企业被称为“shinise”，对它们的研究表明它们往往有一个共同特征：它们持有大量现金，并且没有债务。这就是他们如何忍受几个世纪的持续灾难的一部分。
I love the quote from author Kent Nerburn that, “Debt defines your future, and when your future is defined, hope begins to die.”
我喜欢作家肯特·纳伯恩（Kent Nerburn）的一句话：“债务定义了你的未来，当你的未来被定义时，希望就开始破灭。”
Not only does hope begin to die, but the number of outcomes you can endure does, too.
不仅希望开始破灭，而且你能忍受的结果的数量也开始破灭。
Let’s say this represents volatility over your life. Not just market volatility, but life world and life volatility: recessions, wars, divorces, illness, moves, floods, changes of heart, etc.
假设这代表了你生活中的波动性。不仅仅是市场波动，还有生活世界和生活的波动：经济衰退、战争、离婚、疾病、搬家、洪水、心灵的改变等。
With no debt, the number of volatile events you can withstand throughout life might fall within a range that looks like this:
如果没有债务，您一生中可以承受的不稳定事件的数量可能会落在如下范围内：
A few extreme events might do you in, but you’re pretty durable.
一些极端事件可能会让你陷入困境，但你相当能忍受。
With more debt, the range of what you can endure shrinks:
随着债务增加，你能承受的范围就会缩小：
And with tons of debt, it tightens even more:
随着大量债务的增加，情况变得更加紧张：
I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.
我认为这是考虑债务的最实际的方式：随着债务的增加，你在生活中可以忍受的结果范围缩小了。
That’s so simple. But it’s different from how debt is typically viewed, which is a tool to pull forward demand and leverage assets, where the only downside is the cost of capital (the interest rate).
就是这么简单。但这与通常对债务的看法不同，债务是拉动需求和杠杆资产的工具，唯一的缺点是资本成本（利率）。
Two things are important when you view debt as a narrowing of endurable outcomes.
当您将债务视为可忍受结果的缩小范围时，有两件事很重要。
One is you start to ponder how common volatility is.
一是你开始思考波动是多么普遍。
I hope to be around for another 50 years. What are the odds that during those 50 years I will experience one or more of the following: Wars, recessions, terrorist attacks, pandemics, bad political decisions, family emergencies, unforeseen health crises, career transitions, wayward children, and other mishaps?
我希望还能再活 50 年。在这50年里，我经历以下一种或多种情况的可能性有多大：战争、经济衰退、恐怖袭击、流行病、糟糕的政治决定、家庭紧急情况、不可预见的健康危机、职业转变、任性的孩子和其他不幸？
One-hundred percent. The odds are 100%.
百分之一百。几率是100%。
When you think of it like that, you take debt’s narrowing of survivable outcomes seriously.
当你这样想时，你就会认真对待债务对生存结果的缩小。
The other is you think about the kinds of volatile events that could do you in.
另一个是你要考虑哪些不稳定的事件可能会给你带来麻烦。
Financial volatility is an obvious one – you find yourself unable to make your debt payments. But there’s also psychological volatility, where for whatever reason you can’t mentally endure your job any longer. There’s family volatility, which can be anything from divorce to caring for a relative. There’s child volatility, which could fill a book. Health volatility, political volatility, on and on. The world’s a wild place.
金融波动是显而易见的——你发现自己无法偿还债务。但也存在心理波动，无论出于何种原因，你在精神上无法再忍受你的工作。家庭波动很大，可能是离婚，也可能是照顾亲戚。孩子的波动性可以写满一本书。健康波动、政治波动等等。世界是一个狂野的地方。
I’m not an anti-debt zealot. There’s a time and place, and used responsibly it’s a wonderful tool.
我不是反债务狂热分子。在特定的时间和地点，负责任地使用它是一个很棒的工具。
But once you view debt as narrowing what you can endure in a volatile world, you start to see it as a constraint on the asset that matters most: having options and flexibility.
但一旦你认为债务限制了你在动荡的世界中所能承受的范围，你就会开始将其视为对最重要资产的限制：拥有选择和灵活性。